Blog – Aviation Recruitment

Jun 09, 23

Jefferies Estimates Pilot Shortage at 5,000 Already

by Kerry Lynch

– June 8, 2023, 12:59 PM

While pilot certificates are increasing, the aviation industry is still estimated to be 5,000 pilots short, according to a recent analysis from Jefferies Research Services.

Jefferies noted that student certificates increased 54 percent year-over-year in May and were 32 percent above 2019 levels. Meanwhile, private certificates jumped by 54 percent year-over-year in May and similarly are up by 57 percent from the same month in 2019. Commercial certificates were up 47 percent from May 2022 and 32 percent from 2019, while air transport certificates increased 6 percent year-over-year and by 62 percent from 2019.

Through May, the FAA issued 49,500 certificates this year. This is 19 percent more than a year ago and 23 percent higher than 2021 levels. ATP certificates are 57 percent higher than in 2020, which Jefferies said implies a “relative near-term pilot supply coming to the market after two years of depressed certs.”

But according to the analyst’s pilot supply and demand model, the industry is still undersupplied by 4 percent. Further, it forecasts this shortage will jump to 8 percent, or 12,000 pilots, in 2025 and by 9 percent, or 14,000 pilots, by 2030. This accounts for the fact that 16 percent of today’s pilots are between the ages of 60 to 64 and another 17 percent are between 55 and 59. Jefferies further is considering a fleet expansion that would require additional pilots, estimating a 1.4 percent compound annual growth through 2030 on this end.

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Apr 30, 23

Government Accountability Office (GAO) Blames Airlines for Cancellations

FOX Business reports Airlines, not weather, to blame for most flight cancellations, government report finds. A report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) finds factors under airlines’ control such as staffing shortages and maintenance issues to blame for surge in flight delays, cancellations

Airlines are to blame for the recent post-pandemic surge in flight cancelations, according to findings from a new government report released Friday.

Investigators with the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said that the increase in cancelled flights recorded, as travel has bounced back from COVID-19-era lows, is mostly due to factors that airlines have control over, such as maintenance issues or staffing shortages.

The GAO report also found that airlines are taking longer to recover from disruptions caused by bad weather. Surges in cancelations in late 2021 and early 2022 lasted longer than they did before the pandemic, the GAO said.

The report comes as both airlines and government transportation officials have faced criticism for high-profile flight disruptions in recent years. Republicans on the House Transportation Committee had asked the GAO to investigate changes to the airline industry since the pandemic and whether the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Department of Transportation (DOT) under Secretary Pete Buttigieg were helping to address those problems.

The GAO examined flight data from January 2018 through April 2022 and interviewed several DOT and FAA officials to understand why delays and cancelations have increased.

Investigators found that flight cancelation rates in the last six months of 2021 outpaced 2018 and 2019 rates despite 14% fewer scheduled flights.

The GAO said that weather was the leading cause of cancelations in the two years before the pandemic, but the percentage of airline-caused cancelations began increasing in early 2021. From October through December 2021, airlines caused 60% or more of cancelations — higher that at any time in 2018 or 2019.

Delays and cancelations happened at both smaller airlines and large carriers. In 2019, Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines were the worst offenders, responsible for more than half of their respective cancelations. In late 2021, other low-fare carriers, including Allegiant Air, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways and Frontier, were to blame for 60% or more of their own total cancelations, according to GAO.

Southwest, Delta, American and United also saw an increased percentage of their cancelations caused by issues those airlines could control, the report found.

Staffing shortages have contributed to the problem. Although Congress provided about $54 billion for airlines to retain their employees during the pandemic, they reduced their workforce with early retirements or other incentives to lower costs.

A spokeswoman for trade group Airlines for America said the majority of cancelations this year have been caused by severe weather and air traffic control outages. About 1,300 flights were canceled in one day because of an outage in a Federal Aviation Administration safety-alerting system.

“Carriers have taken responsibility for challenges within their control and continue working diligently to improve operational reliability as demand for air travel rapidly returns,” said the spokeswoman, Hannah Walden. “This includes launching aggressive, successful hiring campaigns for positions across the industry and reducing schedules in response to the FAA’s staffing shortages.”

Stakeholders interviewed by the GAO said that operational challenges, including a need for additional pilots and crew, have made it harder for airlines to manage flight disruptions. Airlines have since taken corrective measures to address the problem, including hiring new staff, opening new training facilities and reducing the number of scheduled flights.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Feb 12, 23

Pilot shortage puts pressure on airline operations (Published by Fox Business on 2/9/2023)

Below are excerpts from the article. The full article is at https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/pilot-shortage-puts-pressure-airline-operations

Bold print are comments from Aviation Recruitment.

Airlines have complained about a shortage for several years, but they made it worse during the pandemic by encouraging pilots to take early retirement when air travel collapsed in 2020. Helane Becker, an analyst for Cowen who has tracked the issue closely, estimates that 10,000 pilots have left the field since then.

The government estimates that there will be about 18,000 openings per year for airline and commercial pilots this decade, with many of those replacing retirees. However, the Federal Aviation Administration issued on average only half that number of pilot licenses from 2017 through 2021.

Private forecasts are dire, too. Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in North America will face a shortage of nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032. The supply of new pilots will grow, but not enough to offset a continuing wave of retirements, the consultant says.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says the lack of pilots will continue to prevent airlines from expanding as much as they would like to take advantage of strong travel demand.

“Pilots are and will remain a significant constraint on capacity,” he said during an earnings call last month.

Kirby figures that his airline, American, Delta and Southwest combined will hire about 8,000 pilots this year, up from the normal 6,000 to 7,000.

The pilot shortage is most severe at smaller carriers that don’t pay as well and serve as stepping stones to the big airlines. Many of them operate regional flights under the names of American Eagle, United Express and Delta Connection.

Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline Association, says those carriers have parked more than 400 planes for lack of pilots, “and air service is collapsing as a result.” Black estimates that regional airlines are short by 8,000 pilots and the trade group says a dozen smaller cities have lost all air service — about 50 more have lost half or more of their flights — despite the broad rise in travel demand.

If a pilot calls in sick, often there is no one immediately available to replace them, and that is leaving tens of thousands of travelers stranded. The lack of pilots contributed to a 52% increase in flight cancellations last year compared with 2021, although it is unclear how much of that was also related to weather and air traffic congestion.

The shortage is giving pilot unions leverage in contract negotiations that were paused by the onset of the pandemic. New contracts are certain to include hefty pay raises that will drive up costs for airlines.

Delta pilots are voting on a contract that their union says would raise pay by more than 30% over four years. If ratified, it likely would become the model for deals with pilots at American, United and Southwest.

The median annual pay for U.S. airline pilots last year topped $200,000, according to the Labor Department, and was likely much higher at the biggest airlines.

The pilot shortage started even before the pandemic. Over the past decade or two, industry officials warned it was coming as travel boomed and thousands of U.S. pilots approached mandatory retirement age. The Federal Aviation Administration raised that age from 60 to 65 in 2007, which pushed the problem off for a few years.

For decades, airlines enjoyed an ample supply of pilots, most of whom came out of the military fully trained and with extensive experience, but the military has its own shortage.

The Air Force said it had a shortfall of about 1,900 pilots at the end of September. It is trying to increase retention and the training of new pilots after producing nearly 1,300 in the previous 12 months.

Not everyone agrees, however, that there is a shortage. The Air Line Pilots Association, the largest union of pilots in North America, says that over the past decade, airlines hired only about half of the people who received FAA licenses that let them fly airliners.

A key point missed by everyone is that a very large percentage of FAA licenses issued are issued to foreign pilots (students) that do not have the right to fly in the US. The US remains the Aviation Training Center of the World.

The union argues that airlines are hyping a shortage narrative to water down qualification standards and hire inexperienced flyers at lower pay. It says that airlines should increase pay to attract more applicants. This objective can be achieved by hiring foreign pilots that will come to the US to work on a temporary basis.

That is beginning to happen at regional airlines — the smaller carriers that handle flights for American Eagle, United Express, Delta Connection and Alaska Airlines’ Horizon Air subsidiary. Three of American’s regional affiliates recently announced that it would offer $100,000 bonuses to some new pilots. Aviation Recruitment can offer options to the airlines that cost significantly less than $100,000.

by admin

Uncategorized

Feb 06, 23

Lawmakers look to increase penalties for airline disruptions (Reported by Fox Business)

Lawmakers want to impose stricter penalties on U.S. airlines that delay or strand passengers.

The latest move comes following outrage over debacles like the one at Southwest Airlines in December.

The “passenger bill of rights” is being presented by Democrats Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Edward Markey of Massachusetts.

“This bill undermines and eliminates decades of successful policies that have transformed air travel, allowing the vast majority of Americans to take flight,” said the spokeswoman, Marli Collier. “The proposed policies in this bill — instituting government-controlled pricing, establishing a private right of action and dictating private sector contracts — would drastically decrease competition, leading to a subsequent increase in airfare prices and potential cut in services to small and rural communities.”

While proposals like this have failed in the past the lawmakers argue that they can succeed this time by attaching their ideas to must-pass legislation to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration.

Southwest canceled 16,700 flights in late December, likely affecting travel plans for about 2 million people, when it took more than a week to recover from a winter storm.

Senator Richard Blumenthal said “The airlines need to be given some incentives to do the right thing, and consumers need protection,” Blumenthal’s proposal would set $1,350 as the minimum compensation for passengers bumped off oversold flights. It would require airlines to provide alternate transportation and reimbursement of out-of-pocket costs to customers whose flights are delayed as briefly as one hour.

The bill would also allow consumers to file class-action lawsuits and eliminate caps on fines the government can levy for airlines that violate consumer-protection laws.

by admin

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Jan 08, 23

Win, Win, Win, Win

The USA experienced a shortage of pilots during 2022 which will certainly extend through 2023. The ten largest airlines in the USA believe that they will experience a shortage of around 19,000 pilots after considering all of the students that are in training at airline and private training facilities. Much of the problem was caused by COVID, vaccination issues and retirements.

Every weekend there are news reports of hundreds, if not thousands of flight delayed or cancelled. These shortages are damaging the brands of many of the US airlines.

Aviation Recruitment has a solution that can be Win, Win, Win, Win for the airlines, the labor unions, the pilots and the USA. Thanks to Free Trade Agreements entered into by the US and certain countries nearly twenty years ago, foreign pilots from those countries can work in the USA on a temporary basis. The pilots from these select countries can be onboard in as short as 45 days. The “free trade” visas do not lead to naturalization or permanent residency or citizenship, but can be renewed for extended periods.

Other than paying Aviation Recruitment’s recruiting fee, there is no cost to the airline. Depending on the specific country and free trade agreement, the pilots can fly from 3 years to as long as the airline needs them. Aviation Recruitment will handle all of the legal activities associated with immigration and the visas.

The only responsibility of the airline is to sign a document confirming that the pilot will have a job. Before confirmation, the airline will conduct its normal interview process.

In the future, when the airlines are able to get all of the US pilots needed, these temporary pilots may be dropped.

Win, Win, Win, Win means:

The airlines get the pilots that they need.
The temporary pilots will join the labor unions just like any other pilot.
The airlines will be able to return to their normal schedules with minimal delays and cancellations.
The USA will recapture its reputation as the country with the safest and most efficient air transport system.

For more information and a proposal, contact Aviation Recruitment at info@aviationrecruitment.com.

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Jan 03, 23

Total number of COVID-19 cases in APAC December 2022, by country or territory

Published by Statista Research Department, Jan 3, 2023

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China saw infection cases spread throughout the Asia-Pacific region. By December 12, 2022, India had faced over 44.6 million coronavirus cases. South Korea followed behind India as having had the second highest number of coronavirus cases in Asia-Pacific, with about 27.7 million cases. At the beginning of the outbreak, people in South Korea had been optimistic and predicted that the number of cases would start to stabilize.

What is SARS CoV 2?

Novel coronavirus, officially known as SARS CoV 2, is a disease which causes respiratory problems which can lead to difficulty breathing and pneumonia. The illness is similar to that of SARS which spread throughout China in 2003. After the outbreak of the coronavirus, various businesses and shops closed to prevent further spread of the disease. Impacts from flight cancellations and travel plans were felt across the Asia-Pacific region. Many people expressed feelings of anxiety as to how the virus would progress.

Impact throughout Asia-Pacific

The Coronavirus and its variants have affected the Asia-Pacific region in various ways. Out of all Asia-Pacific countries, India was highly affected by the pandemic and experienced more than 50 thousand deaths. However, the country also saw the highest number of recoveries within the APAC region, followed by South Korea and Japan.

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Industry News

Nov 08, 22

Global Pilot Shortage Blog

The Pilot Institute based in Prescott, Arizona issued an outstanding update on the Global Pilot Situation during November 2022

The shortage of qualified pilots in the United States is a problem that will only worsen. Airlines are already feeling the pinch and are significantly increasing their hiring efforts after a substantial hiring freeze during the pandemic. There are several reasons for the pilot shortage, primarily because many pilots retired early while others entered different careers after the pandemic. Aviation schools are trying to fill the gap by training more pilots, but it will take time to make a dent in the problem.

The Return of the Pilot Shortage

Once again, airlines around the world are struggling to find qualified pilots. In the United States, this is due to an aging workforce that will soon retire, fewer military pilots leaving active duty, prohibitively high training costs that block many would-be flyers from starting their careers, and pilots who retired early or pivoted to different jobs during the pandemic.

This issue is not limited to the U.S. In China and other places where air travel is growing quickly due to a booming middle class, airlines can’t keep up with demand. Regional airlines are particularly affected by this shortage compared to their low-cost counterparts.

Causes and Consequences of the Pilot Shortage

The pilot shortage in North America is a result of multiple factors, such as the country’s workforce being older than average, with more baby boomers hitting the required retirement age. In addition, there are fewer potential recruits from the military as conflicts are scaled down and the use of drone technology increases. However, these long-term trends would not have been an issue at this stage if it weren’t for pilots taking early retirement in droves during the pandemic.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 2021 median annual pay for airline pilots, co-pilots, and flight engineers was $202,180 – a number that has risen in recent years due to contract negotiations between pilots and airlines. This is significantly cutting into airline profit margins.

Over the near term, more extensive compensation packages are unlikely to be enough to address the shortfall. Becoming a pilot is expensive and time-consuming — costing as much as $100,000 and, in the United States, requiring 1,500 flight hours for airline certification. Training facilities also have a bottleneck as they balance re-certifying pilots returning from COVID-related furloughs and training new candidates at the same time.

The competition for airline pilots is likely to significantly impact regional carriers, especially those that aren’t affiliated with more prominent airlines offering worldwide routes. Even though they have smaller budgets and lower profit margins, regionals are raising salaries to compete. But they’re losing pilots at almost unsustainable rates. If regionals can’t receive and keep enough pilots, they may have to fly fewer flights, reducing travel options for people outside of major airline hubs.

The U.S. Isn’t Alone

The Middle East and Europe are expected to experience the major pilot shortage North America is facing within the next few years.

Currently, China has more pilots than needed because of the strict travel restrictions in place due to their zero-COVID policies. However, as these restrictions are lifted, and air travel begins to rise again, China will see a meteoric rise in the demand for pilots.

Only Latin America and Africa are not expected to see a shortage of pilots. In Latin America, demand is not expected to outpace supply, and in Africa, a small shortfall is likely to shrink over the decade as pilot availability increases.

Why Hasn’t the U.S. Solved the Pilot Shortage?

The issue is more complex than simply incentivizing and training pilots.

Some have suggested raising the mandatory retirement age from 65 to 67. While this would reduce the shortage, it is unlikely to have significant effects. Airline pilots close to retirement age generally work fewer hours, take more time off than their younger counterparts, and spend more time training other pilots. This means that a senior pilot retiring two years later is not necessarily equivalent to an extra two years of flying that a moderately experienced pilot would do.

One regulatory solution is to lower the 1,500 flight-hour requirements for an airline pilot certification. Although this would make it cheaper and quicker to train new pilots, there are also safety concerns that cannot be ignored. It is likely that this would not be the wisest solution to the pilot shortage problem.

To make the profession more accessible, airlines are beginning an array of financing programs to support candidates through the various stages of training. These programs could be expanded to provide more sponsorship to aspiring pilots, giving them the needed support and security in the early phases of their careers.

Finally, the industry could strive to bring women and minorities into the hiring pool, potentially decreasing the shortage. It would take years to feel the positive effects of any attempt to increase the number of pilots. The airlines are feeling pressure from the pilot shortage and are significantly increasing their hiring efforts. However, it will take time for the supply of pilots to catch up with the demand due in part to the long training cycle and years required to build experience.

by admin

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Sep 18, 22

Shortage of Pilots in USA

Headline news – Posted by ARGS on September 29. 2022

Here is a selection of news headlines on the pilot shortage over the past few months.

March 11, 2022: United is cutting 29 cities where it doesn’t have the pilots to fly.
May 23, 2022: Cape Air reduced flights within Montana due to lack of pilots.
June 3, 2022: American Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the airline parked 100 regional jets due to the pilot shortage.
June 7, 2022: Major airlines report pilot shortage weighing on flights.
June 16, 2022: Toledo, Ohio Largest US city losing air service.
June 22, 2022: American Airlines ends service to four cities, citing pilot shortage.
August 4, 2022: Pilot shortage hits regional airports.

“The real constraint is pilot hiring,” Southwest chief executive Bob Jordan told CNBC in May 2022.

“I think the next two years are going to be very disruptive, especially disruptive for regional airlines,” Republic Airways chief executive Byran Bedford told The Washington Post in April. Republic, the second-largest US regional airline with 223 jets, operates 950 daily flights from New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Charlotte and Philadelphia for United, American and Delta.

“It’s a national issue,” US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said when testifying to the US Congress in May 2022. “It’s affecting the whole domestic aviation industry, but disproportionately affecting smaller regional carriers.”
Bleak outlook

Beyond the pandemic’s effect, airlines are expecting pilot shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The number of parked aircraft has reached 500 and this number could rise to 817 by 2023, according to the newly formed Rally for Air Service (RFAS), a Washington DC-based coalition of airlines and airports aiming to stop the pain of lost air service and spur changes to help pilot hiring.

RFAS explained that the 817-aircraft shortfall prediction is derived directly from the pilot shortage: 14,500 pilots are needed, whereas just 6,335 pilots have been minted on average in recent years, leading to an 8,165-pilot shortfall. With 10 pilots needed per aircraft, the shortfall means 817 aircraft could be sitting on the ground by 2023.

While cities like Destin, Florida or Branson, Missouri or Akron/Canton, Ohio may not be top of mind for air service developers, each of those cities has been feeding larger domestic and international aircraft for years. In fact, Chicago O’Hare International airport saw 62% of its departures in 2020 from regional airlines, while Houston Bush Intercontinental airport has 55%.

Larger states like Michigan (60%), Pennsylvania (58%), Virginia (57%) and Ohio (56%) derive more than half of their flight departures from these shrinking regional airlines.

While some industry groups have called for pilot wage hikes, most were granted before the pandemic. The mean pilot salary in the US is $202,000 and even smaller airlines are seeing major pay boosts.

In June, American announced that pilots at its wholly owned regional carriers Envoy Airlines and Piedmont Airlines would receive a 50% pay boost, with new-hire first officer pay jumping from $51 per hour to $90. First-year captain pay rose from $78/hour to $146/hour. The $90/hour figure – a massive leap from $30/hour just five to seven years ago – is also the base pay for low-cost carrier pilots in the US.

Solutions

The pilot shortage has generated tremendous interest everywhere, from small cities to high-ranking politicians. US Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation to raise the pilot retirement age from 65 to 67. This would alleviate the shortage only to a small degree, however, since international flights to most countries are restricted to pilots 65 and younger.

Republic, which operates its own bespoke pilot training academy LIFT, has proposed to the FAA a new intensive training structure whereby a new pilot could be minted at 750 hours instead of 1,500. In addition, several aviation groups have pushed for a relaxation of international visa requirements to allow more foreign-born pilots to come to the US.

The largest US regional airline, SkyWest Airlines with 558 aircraft, is also seeking approval of a plan to create a new subsidiary, SkyWest Charters, that would operate 30-seat jets to some of the markets that have lost air service.

Meanwhile, Dubuque, Iowa and Williamsport, Pennsylvania are waiting for any air service at all to return. While there has been progress to address the pilot shortage, solutions cannot happen too quickly for many communities.

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