Category: Blog

The Pilot Institute based in Prescott, Arizona issued an outstanding update on the Global Pilot Situation during November 2022

The shortage of qualified pilots in the United States is a problem that will only worsen. Airlines are already feeling the pinch and are significantly increasing their hiring efforts after a substantial hiring freeze during the pandemic. There are several reasons for the pilot shortage, primarily because many pilots retired early while others entered different careers after the pandemic. Aviation schools are trying to fill the gap by training more pilots, but it will take time to make a dent in the problem.

The Return of the Pilot Shortage

Once again, airlines around the world are struggling to find qualified pilots. In the United States, this is due to an aging workforce that will soon retire, fewer military pilots leaving active duty, prohibitively high training costs that block many would-be flyers from starting their careers, and pilots who retired early or pivoted to different jobs during the pandemic.

This issue is not limited to the U.S. In China and other places where air travel is growing quickly due to a booming middle class, airlines can’t keep up with demand. Regional airlines are particularly affected by this shortage compared to their low-cost counterparts.

Causes and Consequences of the Pilot Shortage

The pilot shortage in North America is a result of multiple factors, such as the country’s workforce being older than average, with more baby boomers hitting the required retirement age. In addition, there are fewer potential recruits from the military as conflicts are scaled down and the use of drone technology increases. However, these long-term trends would not have been an issue at this stage if it weren’t for pilots taking early retirement in droves during the pandemic.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 2021 median annual pay for airline pilots, co-pilots, and flight engineers was $202,180 – a number that has risen in recent years due to contract negotiations between pilots and airlines. This is significantly cutting into airline profit margins.

Over the near term, more extensive compensation packages are unlikely to be enough to address the shortfall. Becoming a pilot is expensive and time-consuming — costing as much as $100,000 and, in the United States, requiring 1,500 flight hours for airline certification. Training facilities also have a bottleneck as they balance re-certifying pilots returning from COVID-related furloughs and training new candidates at the same time.

The competition for airline pilots is likely to significantly impact regional carriers, especially those that aren’t affiliated with more prominent airlines offering worldwide routes. Even though they have smaller budgets and lower profit margins, regionals are raising salaries to compete. But they’re losing pilots at almost unsustainable rates. If regionals can’t receive and keep enough pilots, they may have to fly fewer flights, reducing travel options for people outside of major airline hubs.

The U.S. Isn’t Alone

The Middle East and Europe are expected to experience the major pilot shortage North America is facing within the next few years.

Currently, China has more pilots than needed because of the strict travel restrictions in place due to their zero-COVID policies. However, as these restrictions are lifted, and air travel begins to rise again, China will see a meteoric rise in the demand for pilots. 

Only Latin America and Africa are not expected to see a shortage of pilots. In Latin America, demand is not expected to outpace supply, and in Africa, a small shortfall is likely to shrink over the decade as pilot availability increases.

Why Hasn’t the U.S. Solved the Pilot Shortage?

The issue is more complex than simply incentivizing and training pilots.

Some have suggested raising the mandatory retirement age from 65 to 67. While this would reduce the shortage, it is unlikely to have significant effects. Airline pilots close to retirement age generally work fewer hours, take more time off than their younger counterparts, and spend more time training other pilots. This means that a senior pilot retiring two years later is not necessarily equivalent to an extra two years of flying that a moderately experienced pilot would do.

One regulatory solution is to lower the 1,500 flight-hour requirements for an airline pilot certification. Although this would make it cheaper and quicker to train new pilots, there are also safety concerns that cannot be ignored. It is likely that this would not be the wisest solution to the pilot shortage problem.

To make the profession more accessible, airlines are beginning an array of financing programs to support candidates through the various stages of training. These programs could be expanded to provide more sponsorship to aspiring pilots, giving them the needed support and security in the early phases of their careers.

Finally, the industry could strive to bring women and minorities into the hiring pool, potentially decreasing the shortage. It would take years to feel the positive effects of any attempt to increase the number of pilots. The airlines are feeling pressure from the pilot shortage and are significantly increasing their hiring efforts. However, it will take time for the supply of pilots to catch up with the demand due in part to the long training cycle and years required to build experience.

Headline news – Posted by ARGS on September 29. 2022

Here is a selection of news headlines on the pilot shortage over the past few months.

• March 11, 2022: United is cutting 29 cities where it doesn’t have the pilots to fly.
• May 23, 2022: Cape Air reduced flights within Montana due to lack of pilots.
• June 3, 2022: American Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the airline parked 100 regional jets due to the pilot shortage.
• June 7, 2022: Major airlines report pilot shortage weighing on flights.
• June 16, 2022: Toledo, Ohio Largest US city losing air service.
• June 22, 2022: American Airlines ends service to four cities, citing pilot shortage.
• August 4, 2022: Pilot shortage hits regional airports.

“The real constraint is pilot hiring,” Southwest chief executive Bob Jordan told CNBC in May 2022.

“I think the next two years are going to be very disruptive, especially disruptive for regional airlines,” Republic Airways chief executive Byran Bedford told The Washington Post in April. Republic, the second-largest US regional airline with 223 jets, operates 950 daily flights from New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Charlotte and Philadelphia for United, American and Delta.

“It’s a national issue,” US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said when testifying to the US Congress in May 2022. “It’s affecting the whole domestic aviation industry, but disproportionately affecting smaller regional carriers.”
Bleak outlook

Beyond the pandemic’s effect, airlines are expecting pilot shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The number of parked aircraft has reached 500 and this number could rise to 817 by 2023, according to the newly formed Rally for Air Service (RFAS), a Washington DC-based coalition of airlines and airports aiming to stop the pain of lost air service and spur changes to help pilot hiring.

RFAS explained that the 817-aircraft shortfall prediction is derived directly from the pilot shortage: 14,500 pilots are needed, whereas just 6,335 pilots have been minted on average in recent years, leading to an 8,165-pilot shortfall. With 10 pilots needed per aircraft, the shortfall means 817 aircraft could be sitting on the ground by 2023.

While cities like Destin, Florida or Branson, Missouri or Akron/Canton, Ohio may not be top of mind for air service developers, each of those cities has been feeding larger domestic and international aircraft for years. In fact, Chicago O’Hare International airport saw 62% of its departures in 2020 from regional airlines, while Houston Bush Intercontinental airport has 55%.

Larger states like Michigan (60%), Pennsylvania (58%), Virginia (57%) and Ohio (56%) derive more than half of their flight departures from these shrinking regional airlines.

While some industry groups have called for pilot wage hikes, most were granted before the pandemic. The mean pilot salary in the US is $202,000 and even smaller airlines are seeing major pay boosts.

In June, American announced that pilots at its wholly owned regional carriers Envoy Airlines and Piedmont Airlines would receive a 50% pay boost, with new-hire first officer pay jumping from $51 per hour to $90. First-year captain pay rose from $78/hour to $146/hour. The $90/hour figure – a massive leap from $30/hour just five to seven years ago – is also the base pay for low-cost carrier pilots in the US.

Solutions

The pilot shortage has generated tremendous interest everywhere, from small cities to high-ranking politicians. US Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation to raise the pilot retirement age from 65 to 67. This would alleviate the shortage only to a small degree, however, since international flights to most countries are restricted to pilots 65 and younger.

Republic, which operates its own bespoke pilot training academy LIFT, has proposed to the FAA a new intensive training structure whereby a new pilot could be minted at 750 hours instead of 1,500. In addition, several aviation groups have pushed for a relaxation of international visa requirements to allow more foreign-born pilots to come to the US.

The largest US regional airline, SkyWest Airlines with 558 aircraft, is also seeking approval of a plan to create a new subsidiary, SkyWest Charters, that would operate 30-seat jets to some of the markets that have lost air service.

Meanwhile, Dubuque, Iowa and Williamsport, Pennsylvania are waiting for any air service at all to return. While there has been progress to address the pilot shortage, solutions cannot happen too quickly for many communities.

Shortage of Pilot in Europe – July 2022 Posted by the Telegraph

Airlines in Europe must hire 6,000 pilots a year for the next two decades as demand for jetting off abroad rebounds strongly, Boeing has said.

European carriers will need to hire 122,000 new pilots between now and 2041, the American planemaker said. A similar number is required in both North America and China.

Demand for qualified pilots may struggle to keep up with supply as the world faces a shortage of flight instructors.

“Because the industry already was heading toward a global pilot shortage before the pandemic, many airlines instituted cadet pilot programs to fill their talent pipelines,” Boeing said in a new report looking at aviation staffing levels.

“Operators that paused or cancelled these programs during the pandemic will likely resume their focus on new pilot development. Concurrently, the industry as a whole must address a global shortage of certified flight instructors.”

The warning on staffing levels comes as British Airways pilots demand the airline rips up a salary sacrifice scheme that was agreed during the pandemic as part of a plan to reduce the number of forced redundancies.Pilots union Balpa remains in talks with bosses at the carrier to replace a scheme that reduces pre-pandemic salaries with a deal that incorporates inflationary rises.

The Boeing report also forecast that European carriers would need to hire 207,000 new cabin crew over the next 19 years – the highest staffing requirement of any region.

Airlines have struggled to re-hire cabin crew that were laid off during the pandemic as bookings surge this summer.

EasyJet was forced to remove seats from its aircraft in order to reduce the number of cabin crew required on board, the Telegraph revealed in May, after suffering a shortfall in staff.

British Airways, meanwhile, began offering £1,000 “golden hello” bonuses if cabin crew switched from their current airline to the UK flag carrier.

Ryanair is currently facing upheaval among its on-board teams based in Spain. The Spanish cabin crew union announced on Wednesday that members will strike for four days every week between August 8 and next January.

Union leader Lidia Aransanz said: “As the company has been unable to listen to the workers, we have been forced to call new strike days.”

The unions are demanding 22 days of holiday and two extra months payment per year to comply with Spanish legislation, she added.

A Ryanair spokesman said: “Ryanair has recently reached an agreement with the main Spanish CCOO union on pay, rosters and allowances for its Spanish cabin crew. Recent strikes by USO/SITCPLA have been poorly supported with minimal effect. Ryanair has operated over 45,000 flights to/from Spain over the last 3 months with less than 1% affected by crewing and Ryanair expects minimal (if any) disruption this winter.”

Aviation in Asia is slowly recovering from COVID.   The number of domestic flights in many (actually most) of the Asian countries has returned to 2019 pre-Covid levels, but the number of international flights have not recovered.  

Asia has gone from one of the fastest growing aviation stories to one of the slowest to emerge.  It was only around April of 2022 that the momentum began to turn positive.  Most experts believe that Asian aviation can thrive again in the future, however, as long as the borders of China remain closed, progress will be extremely difficult if not impossible.

The Aviation market in India is recovering and it less dependent on China than the other countries. 

The travel industry believes that travel in Asia will increase during in the future (2023) due to pent up demand.  Australia, Japan, Korea, Singapore and New Zealand will be key destinations in the future.  Delta and United plan to add additional seats to Asia during this year