Headline news – Posted by ARGS on September 29. 2022

Here is a selection of news headlines on the pilot shortage over the past few months.

• March 11, 2022: United is cutting 29 cities where it doesn’t have the pilots to fly.
• May 23, 2022: Cape Air reduced flights within Montana due to lack of pilots.
• June 3, 2022: American Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the airline parked 100 regional jets due to the pilot shortage.
• June 7, 2022: Major airlines report pilot shortage weighing on flights.
• June 16, 2022: Toledo, Ohio Largest US city losing air service.
• June 22, 2022: American Airlines ends service to four cities, citing pilot shortage.
• August 4, 2022: Pilot shortage hits regional airports.

“The real constraint is pilot hiring,” Southwest chief executive Bob Jordan told CNBC in May 2022.

“I think the next two years are going to be very disruptive, especially disruptive for regional airlines,” Republic Airways chief executive Byran Bedford told The Washington Post in April. Republic, the second-largest US regional airline with 223 jets, operates 950 daily flights from New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Charlotte and Philadelphia for United, American and Delta.

“It’s a national issue,” US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said when testifying to the US Congress in May 2022. “It’s affecting the whole domestic aviation industry, but disproportionately affecting smaller regional carriers.”
Bleak outlook

Beyond the pandemic’s effect, airlines are expecting pilot shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The number of parked aircraft has reached 500 and this number could rise to 817 by 2023, according to the newly formed Rally for Air Service (RFAS), a Washington DC-based coalition of airlines and airports aiming to stop the pain of lost air service and spur changes to help pilot hiring.

RFAS explained that the 817-aircraft shortfall prediction is derived directly from the pilot shortage: 14,500 pilots are needed, whereas just 6,335 pilots have been minted on average in recent years, leading to an 8,165-pilot shortfall. With 10 pilots needed per aircraft, the shortfall means 817 aircraft could be sitting on the ground by 2023.

While cities like Destin, Florida or Branson, Missouri or Akron/Canton, Ohio may not be top of mind for air service developers, each of those cities has been feeding larger domestic and international aircraft for years. In fact, Chicago O’Hare International airport saw 62% of its departures in 2020 from regional airlines, while Houston Bush Intercontinental airport has 55%.

Larger states like Michigan (60%), Pennsylvania (58%), Virginia (57%) and Ohio (56%) derive more than half of their flight departures from these shrinking regional airlines.

While some industry groups have called for pilot wage hikes, most were granted before the pandemic. The mean pilot salary in the US is $202,000 and even smaller airlines are seeing major pay boosts.

In June, American announced that pilots at its wholly owned regional carriers Envoy Airlines and Piedmont Airlines would receive a 50% pay boost, with new-hire first officer pay jumping from $51 per hour to $90. First-year captain pay rose from $78/hour to $146/hour. The $90/hour figure – a massive leap from $30/hour just five to seven years ago – is also the base pay for low-cost carrier pilots in the US.

Solutions

The pilot shortage has generated tremendous interest everywhere, from small cities to high-ranking politicians. US Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation to raise the pilot retirement age from 65 to 67. This would alleviate the shortage only to a small degree, however, since international flights to most countries are restricted to pilots 65 and younger.

Republic, which operates its own bespoke pilot training academy LIFT, has proposed to the FAA a new intensive training structure whereby a new pilot could be minted at 750 hours instead of 1,500. In addition, several aviation groups have pushed for a relaxation of international visa requirements to allow more foreign-born pilots to come to the US.

The largest US regional airline, SkyWest Airlines with 558 aircraft, is also seeking approval of a plan to create a new subsidiary, SkyWest Charters, that would operate 30-seat jets to some of the markets that have lost air service.

Meanwhile, Dubuque, Iowa and Williamsport, Pennsylvania are waiting for any air service at all to return. While there has been progress to address the pilot shortage, solutions cannot happen too quickly for many communities.